Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 25.720352 29.235740 33.018888 37.388465 42.291781 47.619671 53.842905
2024-12-15 20.358998 25.104099 30.598876 37.414409 45.622856 55.170899 67.099120
2024-12-22 17.425778 22.642225 28.972795 37.188527 47.533503 60.089172 76.441542
2024-12-29 15.409552 20.968466 27.998264 37.489151 49.910068 65.547989 86.654990
2025-01-05 14.213464 20.122898 27.863966 38.672647 53.288080 72.265623 98.658550
2025-01-12 12.681362 18.634130 26.693248 38.304044 54.486795 76.106189 107.011615
2025-01-19 10.901286 16.601965 24.567648 36.392290 53.354432 76.633943 110.786918
2025-01-26 10.230262 16.077549 24.477517 37.276602 56.101676 82.547643 122.223973
2025-02-02 9.664244 15.643668 24.459503 38.224010 58.946208 88.694223 134.258028
2025-02-09 8.866248 14.777020 23.717476 38.014916 60.035541 92.321599 142.777993
2025-02-16 8.087069 13.865946 22.826272 37.490740 60.577377 95.118394 150.147917
2025-02-23 7.552978 13.299067 22.417565 37.666259 62.166974 99.517592 160.091409
2025-03-02 7.136104 12.903078 22.268620 38.269612 64.503236 105.243027 172.481191
2025-03-09 6.683478 12.408001 21.920207 38.519929 66.282337 110.188533 183.909078
2025-03-16 6.175272 11.768337 21.275104 38.215513 67.107208 113.621745 193.044986
2025-03-23 5.826803 11.380877 21.024302 38.547481 68.983466 118.804512 205.211057
2025-03-30 5.650668 11.290775 21.277603 39.754141 72.387870 126.624256 222.038260
2025-04-06 5.242538 10.732681 20.659226 39.378480 73.032567 129.870045 231.373648
2025-04-13 4.642679 9.756705 19.213412 37.415959 70.767964 128.068518 232.049188
2025-04-20 4.489483 9.639319 19.338898 38.323655 73.649884 135.191738 248.324810
2025-04-27 4.353573 9.544483 19.497363 39.295716 76.689069 142.710516 265.600200
2025-05-04 4.079919 9.146020 19.046060 39.081194 77.524941 146.370386 276.215146
2025-05-11 3.790202 8.689595 18.448844 38.543323 77.716493 148.869396 284.840297